The Figure below illustrates the model outputs for Gala in Winchester/Frederick County. I used the weather station in Winchester-AREC. However, the same outputs were obtained when I used Washington-Gadio Cellar weather station. For Central Virginia, the bloom date for Gala was April 16, so the model outputs are almost similar to that of Winchester.

Based on Winchester 10-day weather forecast and the outputs of the carbohydrate model, I would suggest Tuesday (April 30) or Wednesday (May 1) for fruit thinning sprays. The expected carbohydrate deficit on April 29 and the two cloudy/rainy days on May 2-4 predict high responsiveness to thinning materials, particularly 6-BA and NAA. The rates of thinning chemicals should be adjusted based on the degree of carbohydrate deficit after thinning applications. Therefore, I will rerun the model on Monday (April 29) to provide more recent information on thinning rates.