The weather forecasts for the coming week show three days with potential frosts. For Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service is forecasting a low of 29F in Winchester and a low of 30F in Tyro. I’m sure other locations in VA are also at risk of frost.
In the Winchester area, apples are 1/4″ green tip with some cultivars showing pink. Peaches are at first pick to some early blooming cultivars having a few open flowers. The phenology in Central VA is a bit more advanced, with peaches having been in bloom for nearly two weeks. According to the critical temperature charts, we can expect a small amount of damage from these temperatures but not a complete crop failure. So, fingers crossed that it doesn’t get any colder than predicted. However, even if flowers are not killed by the frosts, there is also the risk of russets and frost rings. Temperatures are forecasted to warm up towards the end of the week.
Below are links for the Washington State University fact sheets (as pdfs) on the critical temperatures for flower buds:
Michigan State University has adapted the WSU critical temperature fact sheets into this easy-to-read fact sheet.
MSU has also put together an excellent set of resources about freezes and frosts in fruit crops.
Additionally, work done by Dr. Steve McArtney (NCSU) and others has shown that applications of Promalin (gibberellin 4+7 plus the cytokinin 6-BA) at 25 ppm immediately following a frost event may help increase fruit set and cropping. In essence, the Promalin sends signals to the developing fruit that the seeds are still intact and growing, even though the frost has killed the embryo. The result is a crop of parthenocarpic (seedless) fruit. This “rescue treatment” is not a full proof way of setting a crop, and it is still unclear under what environmental conditions and for which cultivars it works best. If the temperatures drop much below 28F, each grower will have to make a decision as to whether or not it is worth trying to rescue the crop with Promalin.
You can read more about the “rescue treatment” with Promalin in this Good Fruit Grower article.
Cold temperatures in the winter, such as we’re experiencing over the next couple-few days with a polar vortex can cause damage to plants, people, and livestock. At this time of year, fruit buds on our main tree-fruit crops (apple, peach, cherry, and pear) are still in their winter dormant state (endodormancy). During endodormancy, buds have a very low water content and tend to be more cold tolerant. However, absolute lows are not the only factor to consider. If warm temperatures precede a cold spell, then tree buds tend to be less cold tolerant and are more likely to be damaged. There is also considerable variation amongst species and cultivars. For this reason, critical temperature thresholds, like those developed for spring frost damage to flower buds, are not well defined. However, from an ongoing discussion among pomologists in the Eastern part of North America, the consensus seems to be that peach flower buds start to be damaged at -10F and complete crop failure and/or tree loss occurs at -20F. Cherry and plum flower buds are slightly more cold hardy than peach buds and damage will likely occur at -20F. Apple flower buds can withstand temperatures down to -25F. As of now, the forecast for most of Virginia does not show temperatures dropping below 0F. Hopefully, this means that fruit buds in Virginia will not be damaged by the polar vortex.
Plants are not affected by wind chills (plants do not lose heat to the wind). But people and animals will be impacted by the heat loss from the high winds that are accompanying this storm. I’ve seen several wind chill forecasts for Tuesday in the -10 to -20F range. If your pruning crews are outside, make sure they are dressed appropriately for the cold. Also, make sure that your farm animals at least have shelter from the wind. For more information on protecting farm animals and equipment from the cold, read Cory Childs’ (VCE-Warren Co.) blog post from earlier today.
MaluSim models were run on May 16 for Winchester and Central Virginia.
As I spoke about at the Winchester breakfast meeting on Thursday morning, the Winchester forecast is calling for warm and cloudy weather starting today and running through most of next week. From many year’s of research, we know that these are the conditions under which there is a fair amount of natural thinning and that chemical thinners can be particularly active. When the weather data is run through the MaluSim model, we see that there is a carbohydrate deficit between -40 to -60 g CHO/day predicted for the next 10 days. This means that chemical thinners that are applied over the next several days will likely be fairly active. With this in mind, growers should consider reducing rates and/or not using a surfactant. Growers with blocks that sustained freeze damage on Tuesday morning, should consider further reducing rates. As always, you should be checking your trees and making decisions based upon the conditions in your own orchard.
For Central Virginia (Piney River), the carbohydrate deficits over the next week will remain in the negative, but not be as low as the Winchester area. This means that chemical thinners applied from today through the weekend will likely be slightly aggressive when used at standard rates. Growers should be regularly checking their blocks for current conditions. By now, you should be able to see some effect of the cloudy weather that the region experienced early last week.
Here are the pdf files that contain the weather data and the MaluSim models:
Peck Central VA MaluSim 5_16_13
Peck Winchester VA MaluSim 5_16_13
The MaluSim carbohydrate model was run on May 13 for both Winchester and Central Virginia.
In Central Virginia, many later blooming cultivars are around 10 mm fruitlet size and can still be chemically thinned. From applications made over the past weekend, growers can expect average responses to chemical thinners. As we move through the week, greater and greater carbohydrate deficits are predicted, which will increase the potency of chemical thinners.
For Winchester, the model is predicting mild carbohydrate deficits early in the week, and much more severe deficits towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Applications made this past weekend through the middle of the week will likely have an average to slightly aggressive response. However, applications make towards the end of the week may result in very aggressive thinning activity. If the weather forecasts hold up, growers should consider reducing rates for applications made towards the end of the week.
I will run the model again on Thursday, May 16.
Fruitlet sizes from the Winchester AREC:
- Honeycrisp: 8.8 mm
- York: 8.0 mm
- Fuji: 8.6 mm
- Suncrisp: 8.4 mm
- Pink Lady: 9.2 mm
- Empire: 11.8 mm
One more note, there are widespread frost/freeze predictions for most of Virginia for Tuesday morning. If a significant frost/freeze event occurs, growers should be cautious with their thinning applications until they can assess if damage has occurred. However, the forecast for Winchester predicts the temperature will only go to 32F, which will not be cold enough to cause significant damage. The forecast for fruit growing regions to the south of Winchester appears to be in the mid-30s to low 40s.
To see more information, click on the linked pdf files below:
Peck Winchester VA MaluSim 5_13_13
Peck Central VA MaluSim 5_13_13
The National Weather Service is predicting temperatures to drop to 22F by the morning of April 4 in the Winchester area. For the bud phenology that I’ve seen in the area, we will probably be spared from having very much damage.
Apples are still dormant with a few early blooming cultivars at silver or green tip. Even at green tip, there should only be 10% damage when temperatures drop to 18F. Peaches with a little pink showing may be susceptible to a low level ~10% of damage. Cherries are still in stage 1 or 2, and should be able to withstand temperatures down to 17F with minimal damage. So, fingers crossed that it doesn’t get any colder than predicted. Temperatures are forecasted to be more “spring-like” next week!
Here are pdf links for the Washington State University fact sheets on the critical temperatures for flower buds:
Additionally, Michigan State University has adapted the WSU critical temperature fact sheets into this easy-to-read fact sheet.
MSU has also put together an excellent set of resources about freezes and frosts in fruit crops.
At our lab in Winchester, we got down to 28F for 2 hours this morning between 6 and 8 AM. I’m seeing damage to king bloom in early blooming apples, but side blooms look like they’ll fair much better. However, I’ve been hearing reports down to 25F in some orchards, with much worse damage. Sweet cherries were in full bloom, and many petals are showing damage. Peaches were past petal fall, and the trees in the lowest area on our farm are probably going to loose some fruit.
It’s going to be a difficult thinning year if we loss a large percent of the king bloom…Unfortunately, we still have about a month where we can potentially have another frost…
Sweet cherries–more damage on the tops of the branches, than on the bottom, where there still might be some viable flowers.
Frost damage to king and some side bloom in Pink Lady. This tree was at the lowest area of the block. Unopened side bloom appeared to have minimal damage, but it’s still early to quantify the damage.
There appeared to be less damage to this Red Delicious flower with the king bloom open and side bloom still closed.