Predicting harvest date depends upon many factors, including full bloom date, accumulated heat units (growing degree days) over the course of the growing season, physiological stressors (e.g., disease and insect damage or drought), day to night temperature differentials as harvest approaches, and the amount of precipitation. However, the number of days between full bloom and harvest has been shown to be the most reliable predictor of harvest date.
More than two decades ago, researchers in Michigan determined that there there are an average of 143 days between full bloom and the first commercial pick of Red Delicious apples that are to be held in controlled atmosphere storage (i.e., firmness between 17-18 lbs; starch between 2.5-4 on the 8-pt scale Cornell Starch Chart). Additional seasonal adjustments above or below the average number of days until harvest are made based upon the average daily minimum temperatures for the 15 days after full bloom.
For the past several seasons I have tested the Michigan model using fruit from a block of Bisbee Red Delicious on MARK rootstock. Results to date have shown that this model is very good at predicting harvest maturity in Virginia.
Based on the Michigan model, here are the predictions for 2013:
In Winchester, Bisbee Red Delicious full bloom was April 23 and average minimum temperature for the 15 days after full bloom was 8.0°F less than 50°F. Using this data in the Michigan model, harvest is predicted ~8 days more than 143 days between full bloom and harvest. This puts the predicted harvest date for the first CA pick of Red Delicious at September 19.
In Central Virginia (Piney River), full bloom for Red Delicious was estimated to be April 20 and the predicted harvest is September 14.
Since most growers have Red Delicious trees in their orchards, other cultivars (and strains of Red Delicious that ripen earlier than Bisbee) can be estimated based upon experience on their picking date relative to Red Delicious.
Another method for estimating harvest date uses the rule-of-thumb that says, “for each 2-3 days departure for the normal bloom date, there will be a one-day departure from the normal harvest date.” (Blanpied and Silsby, 1992).
You can find more information about harvest maturity indices in a post from last year.
In the next week or two, I will start conducting maturity evaluations of fruit from the Winchester AREC and surrounding orchards.
Blanpied, G. and K. Silsby. 1992. Predicting Harvest Date Window for Apples. Cornell Information Bulletin 221. <<pdf>>
Beaudry, R., P. Schwallier, and M. Lennington. 1993. Apple Maturity Prediction: An Extension Tool to Aid Fruit Storage Decisions. HortTechnology 3(2): 233-239.