It’s that time of year when we all stay on our toes, watching closely for any spring freeze that might harm our delicate pome and stone fruit blossoms. So far, flower development has been progressing slowly but steadily, and everything looks fine. This year is not shaping up to be a heavy bloom year for apple orchards—especially in Frederick County and, to some extent, in southwest Virginia, though for two entirely different reasons.

In Frederick County, I predicted last year that flower development for 2025 would likely be suboptimal. This is due to a severe carbohydrate deficit we experienced around the time of flower bud initiation (mid-April to the first 10 days of May 2024). That deficit not only contributed to fruit abscission last season but also appears to have impacted flower bud development for this year. So if you’re seeing fewer blooms, it’s not your fault. In Southwest Virginia, on the other hand, any reduction in bloom is more likely tied to the secondary bloom that occurred last fall following Hurricane Helene. I don’t expect this to significantly affect all crops or locations, but if you noticed extensive secondary bloom in your blocks last fall, those trees will likely show reduced bloom this spring.

Now, regarding the upcoming frost: I remain optimistic that things will turn out just fine, even with the predicted freeze on Wednesday morning. This will be a typical radiative freeze—clear skies, low wind—which causes cold air to settle near the ground and warmer air to rise. The lowest temperatures are expected right before sunrise, and once the sun is up, things should return to normal quickly. Here in the Winchester area, the forecast shows a low of 26°F lasting for about one hour. Other areas, such as Rappahannock, Madison, and Nelson counties, are projected to reach 28–29°F.

Is that critical? Not really. Even if apples, peaches, or cherries are at full bloom, such a brief dip will likely cause only about 10% blossom damage. That level of damage is often considered a natural and even beneficial thinning. In fact, such frost events can act as a signal to the tree to initiate more flower buds for the following season, helping ensure a strong bloom next year. So—no major concerns, unless you observe temperatures that fall within the critical ranges capable of killing 90% or more of your flowers (refer to the critical temperature table https://irp.cdn-website.com/45c0e18f/files/uploaded/Critical_Temperatures_Frost_Damage_Fruit_Trees_Utah.pdf

Should you turn on wind machines or irrigation (under-tree or over-tree sprinklers)?
That’s your call. Personally, I wouldn’t, as long as temperatures stay within the forecasted range. But if you want to play it safe, it wouldn’t hurt—especially in low-elevation or frost pocket areas where these tools can truly make a difference. Since it’s a radiative freeze, both wind machines and sprinklers can be effective. Let’s hope for the best and I look forward to seeing you all at our upcoming orchard meetings!