The Carbohydrate Model & Thinning Recommendations-Central Virginia-May 1, 2022

Our collaborating apple growers in Central Virginia informed me that fruit sizes for most apple cultivars are now between 6-12 mm; the prime window for fruit thinning applications. I, therefore, ran the apple carbohydrate thinning model this morning to determine the optimal application timing based on the carbohydrate status, growing degree days, and thinning efficacy. As you will see below, we have already approached accumulated degree days of 235 (base temp= 4C), which is within the optimal range (200-250) for thinning applications. This range often coincides with fruit size 6-15 mm, which has always been considered the sweetest spot for fruit thinning. As for the carbohydrate status, the daily carbohydrate level is predicted to be in the deficit status for the next three days (May 2-4), and the 7-days weighted average will be at -2.49 g/day for tomorrow.

As you know, trees respond better to thinning materials when the 7-day weighted average values are in the range of -10 to -40 g/day, which is unlikely to be achieved in the following three days and therefore, the model predicts a mild response to thinning materials, and suggests increasing thinning rates by 30%. So, if you decide to apply thinning sprays tomorrow and if you usually use per acre rates of (64 fl oz of Maxcel and 1 qt of Carbaryl, and 1 pt of Regulaid/100 gal) for thinning your Gala trees, you should use (83 fl oz of Maxcel and 1.3 qt of Carbaryl and 1 pt of Regulaid/100 gal/acre) to compensate for the mild thinning action. As you may have noticed, the rate of the non-ionic surfactant remains the same per 100 gal.

My recommendations: after considering the fruit size, the carbohydrate level, and the predicted thinning action, I would seriously consider applying thinning sprays in the following three days (May 2-4); and with the forested thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, I would surely consider finishing a major portion of thinning applications tomorrow (Monday, 5/2). The temperatures in the following three days are around 80 F, perfect for NAA and 6-BA uptake and effectiveness. Also, the cloudy days on May 5-7 might reduce the carbohydrate level, at least partially, allowing for better thinning. If the current forecast is accurate, the second potential thinning window will be on Monday and Tuesday next week (May 9-10). I would use this window for cultivars currently at 6-8mm fruit diameter.

The Cornell Apple Carbohydrate Thinning Model (May 1, 2022).

Important remarks regarding the Cornell apple carbohydrate thinning model:

  • The model interface on NEWA ( is slightly different this year, but the model inputs and outputs are the same.
  • The model collects data for temp and solar radiation from the weather station to calculate the tree’s carbohydrate daily balance and 7-day average (2 days before, the day of thinning and the 4 days after ).
  • For orchards in Central Virginia, I usually use the weather station in Tyro (Silver Creek), but I could not see this station listed on NEWA this morning, probably for a technical reason, and therefore I used the Crozet (Chiles peach orchard) instead. It would help if you used the nearest station to your location.
  • The model requires inputs for the green tip and full bloom dates. For the model I ran today, I used a green tip date of March 15 and a full bloom date of April 10 for Gala apples. If your dates are different, the outputs and recommendations will be different.

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