Today’s MaluSim simulation (pdf) confirms last week’s forecasts for a mild carbohydrate deficit over the past weekend. Even though cooler temperatures are predicted for this coming week, several days of cloudy weather are showing the potential for a very severe carbohydrate deficit starting tomorrow (Tuesday). If we get less cloud cover than predicted, I would expect less of a carbohydrate deficit. Nonetheless, those who are still applying chemical thinners should be cautious about rates and timings during the coming week, especially in blocks with already reduced crop loads due to frosts. The model is predicting a less severe deficit towards the end of the week and for next weekend (if you believe long-term forecasts). As I mentioned last week, we are not sure how well the MaluSim model predicts thinning with ethephon-based materials.

As a reminder, there will be a Rappahannock County in-orchard meeting on Wednesday at Lee’s Orchard and a Morning Update meeting on Thursday at the AREC.