Today’s MaluSim simulation for Winchester (pdf) confirms that the cloudy weather from the cold front that hung over the region for the past few days caused a carbohydrate deficit. The deficit was somewhat less severe than originally predicted, but resulted in similar enough data that I would not have changed the interpretation I provided on Monday. The difference in the predicted and the actual data was due to cooler daily max temps and more solar radiation than forecasted.  As I’ve mentioned previously, cloud cover forecasts are the least accurate and the most difficult to interpret.

Over the coming weekend, the model is showing a period of carbohydrate surplus, then another storm system is predicted for next week, which could cause another carbohydrate deficit.

On Monday, I will run the MaluSim model one last time for this season so that you can have a final version to reflect on as you assess the thinning in your orchards. Please provide me with feedback on how you used the model this season. Did it predict what you are seeing in your orchards? I would appreciate any comments that you think would be useful for improving the model for future years.