Author Archives: Greg Peck

MaluSim Carbohydrate Models for May 2: Winchester and Central Virginia

MaluSim Central VA 5_2_13

 

MaluSim Wincheter 5_2_2013

 

 

Today, I ran the first MaluSim Carbohydrate models for 2013. This includes a simulation for Winchester, and a simulation for Central Virginia (Piney River, VA). Thanks to Bennett Saunders for sending us the data to use for Central Virginia.

The Malusim model was developed by Drs. Alan Lakso and Terence Robinson at Cornell University to estimate the carbohydrate balance in an ‘Empire’ apple tree based upon many years of detailed research and information found in the scientific literature. In recent years, the model has been used by researchers and extension specialists in New York as a tool to help assess the application timing for applying thinning materials at the 10 mm fruitlet size. Carbohydrate status, and therefore the MaluSim model, is not as important for other times when chemical thinners might be applied (i.e., bloom, petal fall, 20 mm), so it is not as clear how well the model does to predict the response of chemical thinners used at timings other than 10 mm.

For the past several years, I have been running trials at the Winchester AREC to see how well the MaluSim model performs under conditions found in Virginia. Many researchers, including myself, are still working towards understanding the best way to use the model. From what we have found, when weather forecasts are used to predict the future carbohydrate status of an apple tree, the MaluSim model can provide a warning as to when there might be a chance for severe under- or over-thinning. This is particularly true when there are three- or four-day trends with large carbohydrate surpluses or deficits predicted. For this reason, in addition to the data points for each day, I show a four-day running average (the black line on the charts). To be consistent with other researchers and extension specialists, the four-day running average is calculated from the date the data is show to three days into the future.

Please keep these caveats in mind if you are using the MaluSim model to guide your thinning application timing:

  • We’re still learning how to best use the model. At this point, it is just one more tool in the toolbox. There is no tool that is better than your own experience with chemical thinning on your own farm.
  • Future predictions of carbohydrate status are based upon weather forecasts from Intellicast.com for Winchester and Piney River. Temperature forecasts are probably pretty good for 3-5 days, but cloud cover (which is how I calculate the future solar radiation) is much less reliable. Although I show predictions out 10 days, my confidence that they are correct decreases significantly after 5 days. Nonetheless, it is useful information–just remember to keep looking for updated models so that you have the most up-to-date information. I will do my best to post a model for Central Virginia and Winchester twice a week.
  • Look at the day that you want to spray, and the 2-3 days after that. If there are periods of severe surplus or deficit, consider adjusting the rates or timing of your thinning applications.
  • The model is based upon the phenology of ‘Empire’. This is because the researchers in NY had a large body of data on Empire to use when they created the model. Of particular note, you should be aware that the model “clock” starts at silver tip for Empire. Cultivars with much earlier or later bud break may not correlate as well with the model values.
  • The models that I am running use data from the Winchester AREC, and Saunders Brothers Orchards in Piney River, VA. You need to consider whether or not those locations represent the weather in your orchard.
  • The model only accounts for temperatures and sunlight. Other weather events, such as rainfall or frosts may cause other impacts on the efficacy of your thinning materials that are not going to be represented in the model.

In the below pdf files, I provide a chart of the weather data that are used to run each model (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily solar radiation), a chart of the MaluSim model with day-by-day data and a four-day running average, and a chart with the potential response a chemical thinner might have for different levels of carbohydrate balance in the tree.

So, what do today’s models show? Some very advanced blocks of early blooming apple cultivars in Central Virginia are getting close to the 10 mm thinning stage. From applications that occur today and tomorrow, you should expect “normal” to “slightly aggressive” response from your standard thinning rates, but nothing that suggests sever overthinning. However, there is a period of unsettled weather predicted for Mon-Wed of next week that could cause the carbohydrate levels to drop in the trees. It all depends on the amount of cloud cover we get over those days. Temperatures are going to remain moderate over that period, so even with the potential for some cloud cover, it doesn’t look like a severe carbohydrate deficit. Cloud cover is the hardest thing to predict, and predictions are only good for 3 days at best.

In Winchester, we are still at late bloom to petal fall, so there’s probably another week before the carbohydrate model data needs careful interpretation.

I will talk more about the model at tonight’s In-depth fruit school in Winchester.

Peck Central VA MaluSim 5_2_13

Peck Winchester VA MaluSim 5_2_13

Table of Contents for 2013 Spray Bulletin

The table of contents in the 2013 Spray Bulletin was unfortunately printed with incorrect page numbers. Dr. Chris Bergh has manually updated the 2013 Spray Bulletin Table of Contents so that you can print a copy and insert it into the Bulletin.

We have been told that there are no more printed copies of the 2013 Spray Bulletin. However, the publication can be downloaded as a free pdf by clicking on the link on the Tree Fruit Extension and Outreach website.

Update (April 15): Dr. Alan Biggs still has about 20 copies of the 2013 Spray Bulletin for sale. If you want a copy, send a check for $14 made out to “West Virginia University” along with your mailing address to Dr. Biggs. He will send you a copy via USPS.

Dr. Alan Biggs
WVU – KTFREC
P.O. Box 609
Kearneysville, WV  25430

Meetings for the Week of April 15

Voen CoverThere will be two commercial fruit grower meetings this week. On Tuesday (April 16) starting at 11:00AM, we will meet at Silver Creek Orchards in Nelson County to review current crop conditions and upcoming management decisions. On Thursday (April 18) at 7:00AM, we will meet at the Alson H. Smith, Jr. AREC for our first breakfast update meeting. Immediately following the breakfast meeting at the AREC, we will walk up the hill to view a Voen orchard covering system that was recently installed by Dr. Peck.

The Voen covering was funded in part by a grant from the Virginia Agricultural Council.

Under the Voen cover

Future meeting dates and additional resources for tree-fruit producers can be found at the new Tree Fruit Extension and Outreach website.

 

 

Potential for Cold Temperature Damage in Northern VA

The National Weather Service is predicting temperatures to drop to 22F by the morning of April 4 in the Winchester area. For the bud phenology that I’ve seen in the area, we will probably be spared from having very much damage.

Apples are still dormant with a few early blooming cultivars at silver or green tip. Even at green tip, there should only be 10% damage when temperatures drop to 18F. Peaches with a little pink showing may be susceptible to a low level ~10% of damage. Cherries are still in stage 1 or 2, and should be able to withstand temperatures down to 17F with minimal damage. So, fingers crossed that it doesn’t get any colder than predicted. Temperatures are forecasted to be more “spring-like” next week!

Here are pdf links for the Washington State University fact sheets on the critical temperatures for flower buds:

Additionally, Michigan State University has adapted the WSU critical temperature fact sheets into this easy-to-read fact sheet.

MSU has also put together an excellent set of resources about freezes and frosts in fruit crops.

2013 Meeting Dates

Apricot flowers at "popcorn" stage.

Well, it’s hard to believe it given the cool temperatures that continue to prevail, but our Spring meetings start this week with an In-Orchard meeting at Crown Orchards on Tuesday starting at 11AM and an In-Depth meeting at the Alson H. Smith, Jr. AREC on Thursday evening starting at 7PM. Our first Rappahannock County meeting will be next Wednesday (April 10) at Jenkins Orchard starting at 11AM.

All tree-fruit meeting dates, times, locations, and directions can be found at the new Tree-Fruit Extension and Outreach Website by clicking on the Upcoming programs & events link.

To ensure that you don’t miss future announcements, please be sure to sign up for the Virginia Tech tree-fruit email delivery service by entering your email in the “Subscribe to commercial tree fruit updates” box on the Tree-Fruit Extension and Outreach Website.

The meetings are focused on commercial tree-fruit production. However, meetings are open to all, regardless of age, color, disability, gender, national origin, political affiliation, race, religion, sexual orientation, or veteran status. Virginia Cooperative Extension is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer.

2013 Fruit Schools by Dr. Doug Pfeiffer

The scheduling of the 2013 fruit schools will be somewhat different than in the past, with two of the schools held on the same date.  The Patrick-Carroll school (Mt. Airy) will be held on Tuesday, Feb 12.  The Botetourt-Roanoke school will be held on the morning of Wednesday, Feb 13.  The Nelson-Albemarle (Central Virginia) school will be held in the late afternoon-evening of that Wednesday.  The Madison-Rappahannock school will be held on Thursday, Feb 14, and the Winchester school will be held on Friday, Feb 15 (Winchester Registration information).

Visit Dr. Pfeiffer’s Virginia Fruit Website: http://www.virginiafruit.ento.vt.edu/HotApple.html

Cost Share Program for Planting Hard Cider Apple Cultivars by Greg Peck

A Specialty Crop Block Grant from the Virginia Department of Agricultural and Consumer Services was awarded to the Nelson County Economic Development Office to increase the volume of hard cider apples grown in Virginia. Grant awards are for a maximum of $3,000.

Please contact Maureen Kelley, Nelson County, info@nelsoncounty.org or 434-263-7015 if you have any questions about this program.

Click the below link to download the application form as a Word Document.

VACiderAppleCostShareGrant

Program Timeline:

January 1 – Announce Program

January 31 – Applications Accepted

February 15 – Announce Awards

May 30 – Deadline for submitting reimbursement request

A review of the 2012 Growing Season by Drs. Peck, Bergh, Pfeiffer, and Yoder

At the annual Cumberland-Shenandoah Fruit Workers Conference in Winchester, the researchers and extension personnel from each of the attending states prepares a review of the past growing season. These reports are published in the Conference Proceedings, but we thought that a broader audience might also be interested in our assessment of the 2012 growing season. Please contact us if you have any additional thoughts or comments. Greg

Call of the States – Virginia

Horticulture

The 2012 growing season began with unseasonable warm temperatures in February and March, which caused fruit-tree bud break to be nearly four weeks ahead of the long-term average. The early bud break led to an early bloom, which lengthened the period when flowers and fruits were susceptible to freezes. Interestingly, trees in the northern Shenandoah Valley were blooming at the same time as trees in Central Virginia; in most years there is a two-week difference. Likewise, many apple, cherry, and peach trees had overlapping bloom. Several frosts damaged blooming fruit trees in Virginia, particularly peaches and cherries, with the most damaging frost occurring on the morning of March 27. Many king bloom in apple were also lost to the frost. But, Virginia growers were spared the colder temperatures that severely reduced the tree fruit crops in North Carolina in late March, and in New York and Michigan in late April. Cool temperatures stretched out the remainder of the bloom period. The frost and prolonged bloom made fruit thinning strategies more challenging.

The fruit producing regions of Virginia were also spared the droughts that devastated farmers in many other parts of the country. However, high winds from the June 29 Derecho storm damaged some orchards in both Central Virginia and Northern Shenandoah Valley orchards. The massive Hurricane Sandy (October 29) that caused widespread flooding in the northeast arrived after most of the Virginia apple crop was already harvested, so damage was minimal and mostly from toppled trees. The early bloom meant that tree-fruit crops were harvested 10-14 days earlier than usual, but this was not problematic since crop losses in other states meant that fruit was in high demand. The USApple crop forecast that was released in August predicted little change in the 2012 apple crop compared to the five-year average. Despite losing many king bloom in apple, fruit size was satisfactory, likely because of adequate rainfall in the latter half of the growing season. I would say that most growers were happy with the yields, quality, and prices that they received for their fruit this year.

Entomology

Warm temperatures in March translated to the earliest biofix dates for oriental fruit moth (OFM) (March 20) and codling moth (CM) (April 14) recorded since 2000.  OFM and CM biofix occurred 10 and 9 days earlier, respectively, than the previous earliest in 2002 and 2008, respectively. Cooler weather in April resulted in tufted apple budmoth biofix on April 29, which tied the previous earliest record in 2000 and was only a few days earlier than average. Cool, wet weather following petal-fall resulted in a prolonged period of plum curculio movement into orchards. There were not significant issues with OFM and CM in fruit at harvest and leafroller populations remained at the very low levels seen in recent years. The overwintering population of adult brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) was smaller than in recent years, due to an unknown source of mortality late in the 2011 season. This translated to relatively low BMSB pressure early in the growing season. BMSB populations rebounded during the summer and large numbers of adults seeking overwintering sites were recorded from late September through about mid-October; the first mass movement to overwintering sites occurred on September 21. BMSB injury to peaches and nectarines at harvest was relatively light, likely due to the combined effects of more targeted sprays, lighter pressure early in the season, and an early harvest that reduced the duration of fruit exposure to some extent.  This was also noted in early and mid-season apple varieties. Late season varieties were exposed to the last generation of BMSB in September and October; injury levels in those varieties at harvest varied considerably among blocks, likely according largely to differences in management programs. In general, BMSB management programs did not incite spider mite or San Jose scale populations. However, woolly apple aphid outbreaks in August and September were more common than is typical. Following its first detection in Virginia in 2011, spotted wing drosophila posed a severe challenge to berry growers throughout the 2012 growing season.  Some caneberry plantings experienced 100% berry infestation.  Blueberries and wine grapes were also affected.

 Pathology

Apple scab: We had “normal” scab development in spite of the early 2012 season. Critical primary infection periods occurred Mar 19-20 and Mar 24-25 and scab lesions appeared Apr 13. This led to severe secondary (also primary) infections Apr 18-19 and 21-23. Getting proper spray coverage through several weeks in April was a challenge because of persistent windy and rainy conditions. Nine later secondary infection periods occurred in May.  Apparent widespread emergence of QoI (strobilurin) resistance presents an important problem for scab management in Frederick County.

Rusts: An unusual development with cedar rust infection was heavy infection on flower cluster leaves (from Mar 24-25) as well as the mid-shoot positions (from May 5-15). For the most part, fruit escaped quince rust infection because wetting periods were too cool for infection while the blossoms were most susceptible.

Powdery mildew: This year we had 44 dry weather “mildew infection days” between Mar 19.and May 31. Summer rains prolonged the length of shoot susceptibility with more likelihood of bud infection, overwintering, and a recurrent problem next year.

Fire blight: Although there were several opportunities for blossom blight infection from Mar 24-Apr 20, there were more numerous reports of fire blight from areas east of the Blue Ridge and the Roanoke area south where bloom was open earlier than in the Winchester area. Some pear shoot symptoms were evident in central VA as early as Apr 3, from infection in mid-March.

Summer diseases: We passed the 250-wetting hour sooty blotch/flyspeck threshold by May 25, four weeks ahead of last year, and the second earliest date for reaching this predictive threshold on record since 1994. Sooty blotch was observed in non-treated trees at our AREC June 13, and this confirmed the validity of using Apr 8 as the unusually early petal fall date and Apr 18 as the date for starting wetting hour accumulation.