Here is the final MaluSim simulation for 2012 (pdf). Please let me know if you have any questions or feedback.

Also, we’re starting to see larger (+25 mm) fruit coming off of apple trees. Some of this fruit is abscising as a result of chemical thinning, but there also appears to be fruit that had either poor pollination (not all carpels have seeds) or had seeds that started to grow but died soon thereafter, possibly as a result of freeze damage. As you monitor your blocks for thinning responses, make sure to cut into the fruitlets and look at the seeds. Many of the fruitlets that have damaged or missing seeds are falling off the trees at the same time as those that were chemically thinned.

Today’s MaluSim simulation for Winchester (pdf) confirms that the cloudy weather from the cold front that hung over the region for the past few days caused a carbohydrate deficit. The deficit was somewhat less severe than originally predicted, but resulted in similar enough data that I would not have changed the interpretation I provided on Monday. The difference in the predicted and the actual data was due to cooler daily max temps and more solar radiation than forecasted.  As I’ve mentioned previously, cloud cover forecasts are the least accurate and the most difficult to interpret.

Over the coming weekend, the model is showing a period of carbohydrate surplus, then another storm system is predicted for next week, which could cause another carbohydrate deficit.

On Monday, I will run the MaluSim model one last time for this season so that you can have a final version to reflect on as you assess the thinning in your orchards. Please provide me with feedback on how you used the model this season. Did it predict what you are seeing in your orchards? I would appreciate any comments that you think would be useful for improving the model for future years.

Today’s MaluSim simulation (pdf) confirms last week’s forecasts for a mild carbohydrate deficit over the past weekend. Even though cooler temperatures are predicted for this coming week, several days of cloudy weather are showing the potential for a very severe carbohydrate deficit starting tomorrow (Tuesday). If we get less cloud cover than predicted, I would expect less of a carbohydrate deficit. Nonetheless, those who are still applying chemical thinners should be cautious about rates and timings during the coming week, especially in blocks with already reduced crop loads due to frosts. The model is predicting a less severe deficit towards the end of the week and for next weekend (if you believe long-term forecasts). As I mentioned last week, we are not sure how well the MaluSim model predicts thinning with ethephon-based materials.

As a reminder, there will be a Rappahannock County in-orchard meeting on Wednesday at Lee’s Orchard and a Morning Update meeting on Thursday at the AREC.

Data from today’s Winchester MaluSim simulation (pdf) shows that apple trees have been in a mild carbohydrate deficit for the last couple of days and will likely continue to be in a mild deficit for three to four days. This means that you should expect average to slightly aggressive thinning response from materials apples during this past week. A more severe carbohydrate deficit is predicted for next week, but this will likely be beyond the 10 mm thinning application for most orchards and cultivars. At the AREC, many cultivars are already at or beyond 15 mm. The three-day rolling average shows less of a deficit over the past few days, but also shows that we are heading into a period of severe carbohydrate deficit next week.

We are unsure how well the MaluSim model predicts responses to ethephon-based materials used for late- or re-thinning at ~20 mm. However, it is something that I am testing this year.

As a reminder, MaluSim is based on an idealized Empire tree and uses weather data from the Winchester AREC. Therefore it may not represent conditions in your orchard or with different cultivars. However, please let me know if you are using this data for making management decisions and how well it is or isn’t working so that we can improve the model for future years.

As I mentioned in the comment to my last post, I am out of town and unable to run a MaluSim simulation until I have access to my lab computer on Friday. However, I just compared the predicted temperatures and sunlight levels that I used as inputs for the model I ran on Monday (April 30), and the current forecast. For the next few days, the Winchester area is predicted to have slightly warmer day time temps and slightly cooler night temps than previously forecast, but overall the temperature forecasts match up reasonably well (see table below). There will be thundershowers over the next few days, which makes predicting total daily light levels difficult. However, the warmer day temps will like drive the carbohydrate status in the tree to be more negative (that is, in a greater deficit). My interpretation of Monday’s model was to expect average to slightly greater than average responses from chemical thinners. With today’s forecasts, I suspect that apple trees will be even more responsive to chemical thinners for the next three days (Thurs-Sat). I’ll verify this when I run the model again on Friday.

Click on this link to see the MaluSim simulation for April 30, 2012 (pdf). As I’ve mentioned previously, it is recommended to look for three-day trends in carbohydrate balance. My colleagues in New York who have been working with the MaluSim for several years now have suggested using a multi-day running average carbohydrate balance, as opposed to the day-by-day data that I have been presenting. Within the file, the first simulation chart is for the day-by-day data, and the second simulation chart is for the three-day running average. The running three-day average is meant to smooth out the data to make it easier to see the trends. Since I haven’t compared previous years’ thinning efficacy using a three-day average, I am less familiar with how to interpret the numbers. Nonetheless, if you look at either the day-by-day data or the three-day running average data, you’ll see that we’re heading into a period of carbohydrate deficit. This means that your chemical thinners will have average to slightly aggressive activity if applied tomorrow (Tuesday) through Thursday.

As a reminder, the model is based on an idealized Empire apple tree that has an average crop load, average number of extension shoots, and has not had any other stress related damage (e.g. frost). Therefore, the model is only meant as a guide for understanding the effects of weather on the activity of your chemical thinners. You should base your thinning applications on the crop situation in your blocks, as well as your experience.

Most cultivars at the AREC are at or beyond the 10 mm fruitlet size. Although  differential separation between fruitlets is not extreme this year (especially in clusters with no king bloom due to the frost), it is still assumed that weaker fruit will be thinned more easily than stronger (i.e. larger) fruit. Since there is a great amount of variability in fruitlet sizes within trees and within orchards, make sure to properly assess blocks before applying chemical thinners.

Please let me know if you have any questions. You can use the comments feature on this blog site, or send me an email at greg.peck@vt.edu.

As a final note to today’s post, I want to thank Drs. Alan Lakso and Terence Robinson from Cornell University who have spent many years working on developing the MaluSim model. They have been very generous in sharing the model and their experiences interpreting the model for use in predicting thinning efficacy.

Here is the MaluSim simulation for April 26 (pdf) that I presented at the In-depth Fruit School in Winchester last night. As you can see from both the weather data and the simulation, it looks like the next 3-day period where there is a carbohydrate deficit will be next week. Chemical thinners applied at the earlier end of the deficit will likely have more activity than those applied over the weekend. Since the model predictions are only as good at the forecast data that are used as inputs, it is be important to keep an eye on the temperatures towards the end of next week. I’ll run another simulation on Monday. In previous years, the model has shown that carbohydrate deficits of less than -60 g CHO/day can cause over thinning.

As I discussed last night, the MaluSim model should be used as another tool in the toolbox for understanding the interaction between environmental conditions (primarily temperature and sunlight) and thinning. At this point in time, the model is not able to predict the actual amount of thinning you can expect for any given application. But it does provide some indication as to whether to expect greater or lesser activity from your thinning chemicals.

Please let me know how you are using this information for making management decisions. In future years, we hope to be able to further refine the model to account for more specific inputs (for example, cultivar, crop load, frosts and other physiological stresses). Your input will help us understand how the model is being used and how we can increase its utility.

In the linked pdf file, I also include data on the current fruitlet size for several varieties that we grow at the AREC (fruitlet sizes listed on the simulations are for Empire, which is the standard tree used for the model).

Also included is a slide on year to date data on precipitation. Despite some rains last week and over the weekend, soil conditions are still abnormally dry.