MaluSim Carbohydrate Model for May 8, 2014

Slide3Due the rapidly changing weather forecasts, I ran the MaluSim model again on Thursday. For Central Virginia, the model is showing values in the -20 to 20 range for the next seven days. This means Slide3that growers should expect an “average” response from their chemical thinners.  Growers in the Central Virginia region should target the next couple-few days to make their thinning sprays as fruitlets are at the ideal size for applications of NAA and 6-BA. Fruitlets grow at ~0.5 mm/day in cool temperatures, and as you can see from the table below, up to 1 mm/day with warmer temperatures.

 

Table 1. Fruitlet sizes at Silver Creek Orchards.

1-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr 2-May 6-May 8-May
Empire Silvertip Petal Fall 5.6 7.3 10.9 12.1
Red Delicious 5.7 6.5 9.3 10.6
Pink Lady 5.4 7.5 8.3 10.4
Gala 5.4 6.4 8.8 10.6
Fuji 4.4 5.8 7.8 9.9

Much warmer day and night temperatures are forecast for the Winchester area, so the MaluSim model is showing a persistent carbohydrate deficit for the next five days. However, we are still at petal fall to ~5 mm for most cultivars, so hopefully by the time fruit are at 10 mm more moderate weather conditions will reduce the chance of over thinning. Chemical thinning applications made when either the day-by-day or running average value is below -60 g CHO/day will likely result in aggressive thinning.

I will run the models again early next week. Please download the below pdf files for the full report.

Central VA MaluSim 5_8_14

Winchester VA MaluSim 5_8_14

 

MaluSim Carbohydrate Model for May 6, 2014

Today, I ran the MaluSim model for both Central Virginia <pdf> and  Winchester <pdf>.

Central VA MaluSim 5_6_14 Winchester MaluSim 5_6_14

For Central Virginia, fruitlets are just starting to approach the 10 mm stage. It looks like the best chance to get a strong thinning response will be Wednesday and Thursday. After that, the model is showing that chemical thinners will have more of an “average” response. Target blocks that have a heavy crop load on Wednesday and Thursday, and leave blocks with more frost damage and lighter crop loads to thin on Friday and over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1. Fruitlet sizes at Silver Creek Orchards.

1-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr 2-May 6-May
Empire Silvertip Petal Fall 5.6 7.3 10.9
Red Delicious 5.7 6.5 9.3
Pink Lady 5.4 7.5 8.3
Gala 5.4 6.4 8.8
Fuji 4.4 5.8 7.8

For the Winchester area, most blocks are at petal fall or just beyond. We’re forecasted to have some summer-like weather over the next several days, which will cause a fairly strong carbohydrate deficit in the trees. Petal fall thinning sprays rarely over thin, even in hot weather, however blocks with fruitlets approaching 10 mm may see a strong thinning response from applications made over the next three to four days.

I will run another set of models on Friday. I will also start posting fruitlet sizes from fruit at the AREC. Download the above linked pdf files to view the full reports.

MaluSim Carbohydrate Model for May 2, 2014

Fruitlets in Central Virginia are growing fast, and I suspect that most growers will be putting on their 10 mm thinning sprays over the next 7 days. In the Winchester area, we’re just at petal fall, so I will start running the MaluSim model next week.

For Central Virginia, using Intellicast forecasts, the MaluSim model is predicting a slight carbohydrate deficit through the early part of next week. Growers should expect a normal to slightly aggressive response from their chemical thinners that are applied today through Monday. I’ll run another model on Tuesday to assess the impact of thinner applied in the middle to end of next week.

Table 1. Fruit phenology at Silver Creek Orchard.

1-Apr 28-Apr 30-Apr 2-May
Empire Silvertip Petal Fall 5.6 mm 7.3 mm
Red Delicious 5.7 mm 6.5 mm
Pink Lady 5.4 mm 7.5 mm
Gala 5.4 mm 6.4 mm
Fuji 4.4 mm 5.8 mm

Download the full report <Peck Central VA MaluSim 5_2_14>.

MaluSim Carbohydrate Model for April 30, 2014

Growers in the Central Virginia growing region are reporting that their bloom is stretched out quite a bit with some side bloom still in flower and some king bloom fruit approaching 5 to 6 mm in fruitlet size. In general, most chemical thinners are more active on the smaller, slower growing fruit, so this spread may prove to be advantageous.

Peck Central VA MaluSim 4_30_14

For those Central Virginia growers who are starting to map out their thinning schedule, I’ve started running the MaluSim carbohydrate model. I will discuss the details of how the model works, as well as my research results on validating the model at the meeting on Thursday, May 1.

The MaluSim model is most effective at predicting thinning efficacy at the 10 mm timing, and has a much lower predictive value for flower, petal fall, or 20-25 mm thinning applications.

As of today, the long-term forecast shows a long string of days with mild temperatures and lots of sun. From these forecasted data, the MaluSim model <<pdf>> is showing no extremes in carbohydrate supply, meaning that chemical thinners will have a “average” response. For a detailed look at the model, as well as interpretation table, download the above linked pdf.

For the Winchester area, I will assess fruit development on Friday to decide when the first model run is warranted.

A big thank you to John Saunders for helping with the MaluSim modeling work this year. Last year, Dr. Mizuho Nita (grape plant pathologist at our AREC) installed weather stations at Silver Creek and set up a network relay system that allows me to download meteorological data from Silver Creek right to my computer. If you work with Mizuho on grape disease related issues, please thank him as well!

Notice of Date Change for Central Virginia Orchard Meeting

April 29, 2014

Dear Central Virginia Fruit Producer:

Due to the quick progress of our trees this spring, our third orchard production meeting of this year HAS BEEN MOVED FORWARD TO THIS THURSDAY, May 1st. We will be meeting at 11:00 a.m. at the office of Saunders Bros. Nursery, located at 2717 Tye Brook Hwy, Piney River, VA 22964; Tel.: (434) 277-5455; http://www.saundersbrothers.com/. Bennett Saunders will be our host.

A special focus of this meeting with be crop thinning considerations provided by Extension specialist Gregory Peck. In addition, Drs. Yoder and Bergh will be on hand to discuss disease and insect pest issues, respectively. Please come to discuss fruit production issues and concerns with other fruit growers and Extension fruit specialists. You are encouraged to bring plant and insect samples for identification, but please have these contained in a plastic bag.

Please bring your own bagged lunch to this meeting. Cold drinks will be provided by the host orchard.

Orchard Events Website:

www.anr.ext.vt.edu/tree-fruit/

Remaining 2014 Central Virginia Orchard Meeting Schedule

· May 20th Fitzgerald Orchard Lowesville, VA

· June 3rd 7K Farm Rustburg, VA

Sincerely,

Michael W. Lachance

Extension Agent

If you are a person with a disability and desire any assistive devices, services or other accommodations to participate in this activity, please contact the Nelson County Extension Office at (434) 263-4035 to discuss accommodations five days prior to the date of the meeting.

Risk of Frosts this Week

The weather forecasts for the coming week show three days with potential frosts. For Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service is forecasting a low of 29F in Winchester and a low of 30F in Tyro. I’m sure other locations in VA are also at risk of frost.

In the Winchester area, apples are 1/4″ green tip with some cultivars showing pink. Peaches are at first pick to some early blooming cultivars having a few open flowers. The phenology in Central VA is a bit more advanced, with peaches having been in bloom for nearly two weeks. According to the critical temperature charts, we can expect a small amount of damage from these temperatures but not a complete crop failure.  So, fingers crossed that it doesn’t get any colder than predicted. However, even if flowers are not killed by the frosts, there is also the risk of russets and frost rings. Temperatures are forecasted to warm up towards the end of the week.

Below are  links for the Washington State University fact sheets (as pdfs) on the critical temperatures for flower buds:

Michigan State University has adapted the WSU critical temperature fact sheets into this easy-to-read fact sheet.

MSU has also put together an excellent set of resources about freezes and frosts in fruit crops.

Additionally, work done by Dr. Steve McArtney (NCSU) and others has shown that applications of Promalin (gibberellin 4+7 plus the cytokinin 6-BA) at 25 ppm immediately following a frost event may help increase fruit set and cropping. In essence, the Promalin sends signals to the developing fruit that the seeds are still intact and growing, even though the frost has killed the embryo. The result is a crop of parthenocarpic (seedless) fruit. This “rescue treatment” is not a full proof way of setting a crop, and it is still unclear under what environmental conditions and for which cultivars it works best. If the temperatures drop much below 28F, each grower will have to make a decision as to whether or not it is worth trying to rescue the crop with Promalin.

You can read more about the “rescue treatment” with Promalin in this Good Fruit Grower article.

Fruit Bud Damage in the Winchester Area

The winter of 2013-14 will surely go down as one of the colder, snowier winters in recent years. Many growers have been asking about potential flower bud damage from the cold temperatures that we’ve had. As a general rule-of-thumb, peach and sweet cherry buds are hardy to about -10F, and near complete bud loss and perhaps some branch damage will happen when temperatures are below -20F. As I mentioned in a previous post, plants are not affected by wind chills, so we are talking about absolute cold temperatures, which will be warmer than the wind chill temperatures that are reported in weather reports. Apples and pears are generally hardy down to -25F. However, hardiness is much less when: there is a warm spell preceding the cold temperatures, when trees have already been pruned, when the cold temperatures persist for an extended period of time, or when trees were under water or nutrient stress in the previous season. Under these circumstances, peach and sweet cherry buds might be damaged at 0F or even warmer. During this past winter, peach buds may have been killed during multiple events.

Looking at the absolute cold temperatures from August 1 to present, we see that many of the fruit growing regions in the mid-west and Northeast likely have moderate to significant damage to their peach and sweet cherry crops.

US_freeze_py_mmin

Zooming into the Mid-Atlantic, we see that there were some areas along the western edge of Virginia that sustained temperatures below -10F this winter. Many other areas of Virginia have had temperatures in the minus single digits.

210_freeze_py_mmin

To get an idea of how much peach bud damage is in the Winchester area, last week my lab  collected 10 peach branches from each of seventeen different blocks of peaches. Many of the blocks were located at the AREC, but we also collected branches from some nearby farms. The branches were kept in a vase at room temperature for 24 hours, and then every bud on every branch was dissected from the tip to the base to look for damage. Healthy buds are green and look moist, while damaged bud are brown and translucent.

Table 1. Peach bud damage from the winter of 2013-14. Branches were collected on March 4 and analyzed on March 5.

Cultivar

Percent of Flower Buds Alive on Shoot

Total Number of Buds Dissected

Contender

83.0 317

Laurel

30.8 289

Loring 1

0.5 195

Loring 2

0.0 180

Loring 3

91.0 144

Red Haven 1

94.1 187

Red Haven 2

92.5 253

Red Haven 3

83.2 232

Red Haven 4

96.0 173

Red Haven 5

97.8 90

Red Haven 6

86.6 313

Redskin

0.0 197

Sentry

65.0 163

Sugar Giant

79.0 372

Sweet Breeze

41.7 103

Sweet-N-Up

45.9 204

Topaz

50.0 142

From these data it is clear that there are both variety and site differences in bud damage. A few blocks are likely to have no or little fruit this year, but most blocks have the potential to set a full crop. Remember that it only takes 15-40% of the buds to make a full crop. The bottom line is that before you prune, it would be a good idea to assess how much damage you have in your trees. Only in situations where severe bud damage occurred should growers leave extra wood when pruning.

Penn State did a similar analyses of peach buds, and found that only 22-32 percent of the peach buds were dead at the Biglerville Fruit Lab.

Rappahannock-Madison Winter Fruit School Rescheduled for March 6

The Rappahannock-Madison  Winter Fruit School has been rescheduled for March 6 at Grave’s Mountain Lodge. The start time is 8:15AM and agenda will remain the same. Contact Kenner Love (klove@vt.edu) with questions or for more details.

A rescheduled date for the Central Virginia Fruit School is still being determined.

Winchester Regional Fruit School

Due to the continued winter weather, we have decided to delay the start of the Winchester Fruit School.
9:30am – Registration
10:00am – Presentations begin
Location remains the Lee Jackson (Best Western) Conference Center, 711 Millwood Avenue, Winchester, VA. 22601
Please pass on this information to others that were registered with you.Mark Sutphin

Associate Extension Agent | Agriculture and Natural Resources, Horticulture | Unit Coordinator (Frederick)

Virginia Cooperative Extension – Frederick County Office | 107 North Kent Street | Winchester, VA 22601

Phone – 540.665.5699 | Fax – 540.722.8380 | Cell – 540.398.8148 | Email – mark.sutphin@vt.edu |http://offices.ext.vt.edu/frederick/

Serving the counties of Frederick, Clarke, Page, Shenandoah, & Warren

VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY

Extension is a joint program of Virginia Tech, Virginia State University, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and state and local governments.